AI boom becomes a "key buffer" for the global economy, offsetting the impact of Middle East tensions
智通财经2026/08/28 03:36- The Unexpected Resilience of the Global Economy: Despite the escalation of the US-Canada trade war, Trump’s intensification of actions against Iran, and soaring bond yields, the global economy remains unfazed—oil prices have stabilized below $90/barrel, the stock market is near its highs, developed economies have experienced a summer boom, and global trade is flourishing. The IMF President stated that the current situation is a “tug-of-war between negative supply shocks from the Middle East and positive demand shocks from AI.”
- Multiple Buffer Mechanisms: (1) Countries utilizing energy reserves and diversifying procurement channels (such as shifting to the US), with China as the largest importer drastically reducing imports and playing a key role in curbing global oil demand; (2) The world using oil more efficiently (producing more GDP per barrel); (3) Governments protecting households from rising energy prices through subsidies; (4) Europe increasing defense and infrastructure spending, buffering against energy shocks.
- The Core Driving Force of the AI Boom: ING estimates that AI has contributed about one-third to recent US economic growth. Construction of data centers is drawing in semiconductors, electronics, cables, metals, and machinery worldwide. Asian exports have surged—in July, Chinese exports grew 25%, Japan 22%, South Korea 63%, and even smaller economies such as Thailand also reported significant export increases. The Singaporean government has raised this year’s growth forecast to 5.5% (from a previous 4%).
- Concerns and Warnings: (1) The promotion of AI and its economic impact remain uncertain, and there are risks to financial stability (such as bubbles in soaring AI-related stock prices and lending expansion); (2) The IMF President warns policymakers not to put all their eggs in the AI basket; (3) Asia relies too heavily on exports, with insufficient internal growth drivers such as consumption; (4) Growth is becoming increasingly narrow, and after a period of rapid AI-driven demand, it may be approaching a critical point where growth slows.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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