Hormuz risk premium rapidly recedes, Brent crude falls below $89

⑴ Boosted by discussions between Oman and Iran on establishing a temporary shipping channel and joint minesweeping project in the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium in these waters continues to decline. Brent crude has fallen below approximately $89 per barrel, with a decrease of nearly 4%. ⑵ The drop in oil prices has effectively eased market concerns over energy-driven inflation. US Treasury yields have fallen in tandem, reflecting that the bond market is repricing the impact of energy costs on price pressures. ⑶ The Iranian oil minister stated publicly that although export volumes have declined, crude oil sales have not ceased. Tehran is still delivering crude oil to customers in distant markets, but, citing concerns that operational information could be exploited by rivals, refused to provide further export details. ⑷ The statement from Iran is, to some extent, an attempt to stabilize market confidence in the continuity of its supply. However, without specific data to support these claims, market doubts about the actual extent of the Strait of Hormuz’s navigation recovery are not fully alleviated. ⑸ In the short term, the crude oil market will remain highly sensitive to any official confirmation or sudden events regarding the implementation of the temporary channel. After the compression of the risk premium, future price movements will largely depend on the actual pace of logistics recovery and the global demand outlook.