Hormuz risk premium recedes rapidly as Oman-Iran talks open expectations for a temporary channel

⑴ Affected by Oman and Iran’s discussions on establishing a temporary navigation channel through the Strait of Hormuz and the proposed joint mine-clearing project, the geopolitical risk premium in the area has significantly declined, with Brent crude oil dropping nearly 4% to about $89 per barrel. ⑵ Institutional analysis points out that if the temporary channel plan makes substantial progress, it will effectively alleviate extreme concerns over disruption of Middle Eastern oil exports. The relief of energy import pressure will directly cool global inflation expectations. ⑶ The decline in oil prices is simultaneously transmitted to the bond market, with U.S. Treasury yields falling due to reduced inflation expectations, reflecting a reassessment of the persistence of energy cost-driven inflation. ⑷ The game surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues, and any official confirmation regarding navigation safety or subsequent unexpected events could trigger sharp two-way swings in oil prices and safe-haven assets. The market will closely monitor the concrete outcomes of the Oman-Iran consultations.