ECB minutes reveal internal divisions, interest rate hikes not completely ruled out

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智通财经2026/08/27 11:46

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The latest meeting minutes of the European Central Bank reveal that some policymakers would not oppose a rate hike at this meeting, indicating that the decision-making body remains open to further tightening and that hawkish voices have not completely faded.
Meanwhile, the latest economic data suggest that pausing rate hikes at this meeting is reasonable, as labor market conditions are simultaneously becoming more relaxed, reducing the risk of widespread second-round effects from energy shocks.
The minutes point out that the transmission of rising energy prices to end-user liquid fuel prices may not have been fully reflected in July’s data, and its impact may only gradually become evident in August. This lagged effect serves as an important technical reason to maintain a wait-and-see stance.
The decision-makers emphasize that the expected duration of inflation above target remains a key factor in closely monitoring the intensity and duration of energy price shocks. If natural gas prices stay high, they will eventually exert pressure across the broader price system.
Potential price pressures continue to ease, and there are more favorable changes in the more persistent components of inflation, providing some fundamental support for pausing rate hikes. However, as second-round effects have yet to be embedded in domestic price and wage dynamics, there remains flexibility for policy rate adjustments.

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ECB minutes reveal internal divisions, interest rate hikes not completely ruled out

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