The U.S. diesel pricing expectation for tomorrow shows a stepwise decline; 5.62 is a key resistance level, with only about a 30% probability of breaking through.

⑴ The prediction market's pricing for tomorrow's average diesel price shows that the probability of the price staying above 5.60 is as high as about 99%, above 5.605 is about 99%, and above 5.61 is about 94%. This indicates that the 5.60 to 5.61 range is considered a robust bottom support platform. ⑵ The probability of testing 5.615 on the upside drops to about 78%, with 5.62 falling further to around 59%, presenting an obvious stepwise probability decline. This shows that the area near 5.62 is a key threshold for the shift between bullish and bearish forces. ⑶ Once above 5.62, the probabilities collapse rapidly—above 5.625 they plunge to about 29%, above 5.63 to around 22%, above 5.635 to about 11%, and for 5.64 and above, all levels drop to roughly 4% or less. The market has almost completely ruled out the scenario of prices consistently running above this level. ⑷ This pricing pattern is similar to the distribution patterns across states in the gasoline market but steeper: while bottom support is strong, upward resistance increases step by step, reflecting traders’ view that the current price has fully priced in the existing fundamentals and there is a lack of sufficient catalysts to drive a further price revaluation. ⑸ The actual price tomorrow is highly likely to fall within the 5.61 to 5.62 range. If it unexpectedly moves above 5.625, it could trigger a short-term expectation adjustment, but current pricing suggests this scenario has less than a 30% chance. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether crude oil trends and refinery operating rates can break the current deadlock.