Bitcoin is showing early signs of a technical breakout on its weekly chart, according to Real Vision crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts. In a post on X, Coutts highlighted a bullish divergence in the weekly relative strength index (RSI) and a shift in a trend-reversal indicator from neutral to bullish—a setup that historically preceded continued upside in five of six prior instances.
What the Technical Signals Indicate
The weekly RSI divergence occurs when price makes a lower low but the oscillator prints a higher low, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. Coutts also noted that a proprietary trend-reversal indicator, which tracks momentum shifts, has moved from a neutral yellow zone to a bullish green zone. In the six previous occurrences of this combined signal, five were followed by an uptrend without a significant pullback or retest.
While the pattern is historically reliable, Coutts cautioned that it is not a standalone trigger. The analyst emphasized that global liquidity conditions remain unfavorable despite recent dollar weakness, and that for Bitcoin to sustain a rally, the U.S. Treasury’s mentioned bond buybacks and potential Federal Reserve policy support would need to materialize.
Why Global Liquidity Matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has increasingly traded in tandem with global liquidity measures, particularly the availability of dollar funding and central bank balance sheets. When liquidity tightens, risk assets like Bitcoin often face headwinds, even if technical charts look constructive. The dollar’s recent softening provides some relief, but Coutts argues it is insufficient without broader monetary or fiscal support.
The reference to U.S. Treasury bond buybacks is notable. In late 2025, the Treasury announced plans to repurchase outstanding securities to improve market functioning, a move that could inject liquidity into the financial system. However, the actual impact depends on execution and whether the Fed complements it with policy easing.
Market Context and Investor Takeaways
Bitcoin’s price action has been range-bound for weeks, with traders awaiting a catalyst. The technical signals described by Coutts could provide that catalyst, but only if macro conditions align. Investors should view this as a developing story rather than a definitive buy signal, given the reliance on external factors that are not yet confirmed.
For those tracking Bitcoin, the key metrics to watch are the weekly RSI, the trend-reversal indicator, and any announcements from the Treasury or Fed regarding bond buybacks or policy shifts. A confirmed break above recent resistance levels, accompanied by improving liquidity, would strengthen the bullish case.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s weekly chart is flashing a historically bullish setup, but the macro backdrop remains a critical variable. Analyst Jamie Coutts’ observations highlight the potential for upside, yet the path forward hinges on liquidity conditions that are currently unfavorable. As always, technical signals are probabilistic, not deterministic, and investors should weigh the risks before acting.
FAQs
Q1: What is a bullish divergence in RSI?
A bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a lower low, but the RSI makes a higher low. This suggests that selling momentum is weakening and a potential reversal to the upside may be imminent.
Q2: Why does global liquidity affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a risk asset that tends to perform well when liquidity is abundant, as investors are more willing to take on risk. Tight liquidity, often due to central bank tightening or dollar strength, can reduce demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Q3: What are Treasury bond buybacks?
Bond buybacks are when the U.S. Treasury repurchases its own outstanding securities from the market. This action can inject liquidity into the financial system, potentially supporting risk assets like Bitcoin, but its effect depends on the scale and timing.
