The pressure on the US Treasury supply-demand structure is shifting to the long end, and the strategic premium from the supply-demand gap is boosting copper prices, while several Southeast Asian countries are experiencing expanded trade deficits — 0817 Macro Overview
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The risk of US fiscal sustainability remains difficult to rein in. Expansionary policies such as the TCJA, pandemic relief programs, and the Inflation Reduction Act continue to push up US Treasury supply, while tariff refunds, the US-Iran conflict, and AI development further intensify supply pressures. On the demand side, the decline in major stable buyers—foreign official institutions and the Federal Reserve—continues. Demand for longer-term debt faces higher pressure, while the short end may ease with macroeconomic adjustments.
- As of August 14, the LME copper spot settlement price rose to 14,545 USD/ton, a 16.3% increase from the end of 2025. The current round of copper price hikes is mainly driven by multiple supply-side disruptions and the contradiction with structurally expanding demand, compounded by the reconstruction of global resource flows triggered by expectations of new US tariffs.
- In 2026, several Southeast Asian countries will shift from long-term surpluses to deficits: Vietnam recorded a cumulative deficit from January to July, Indonesia posted deficits for two consecutive months, the Philippines saw a widening deficit, and Malaysia maintained resilience. Oil price shocks were the direct catalyst, with pre-emptive imports, panic-driven stockpiling, and capacity expansion amplifying import volumes, while front-loaded exports and increased US tariffs suppressed the export side.
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