Deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, European gas prices surge, intensifying the interplay between weather and nuclear energy
智通财经2026/08/17 09:36- On Monday morning, Dutch and UK natural gas futures prices rose in tandem, mainly due to stalled US-Iran negotiations and increasingly dim prospects for restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which has reignited concerns over geopolitical supply.
- The Dutch TTF near-month contract climbed to 62.27 euros per megawatt-hour, with the UK near-month contract also moving higher. Market sentiment was bolstered by both the statements of Iran's foreign minister over the weekend and the US's firm position on controlling the shipping route.
- Institutional analysts pointed out that as the US refuses to retreat on the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz, the likelihood of LNG tankers returning to this route continues to decline. In addition, the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran in June expires today, further increasing the uncertainty in the situation.
- On the demand side, the temperature forecast in northwest Europe for the next 15 days suggests a significant drop, with rising heating demand expected to boost gas consumption. However, France's nuclear power generation capacity has recovered strongly for the coming week, likely offsetting most of the extra demand driven by colder weather.
- Norway's overall natural gas deliveries and LNG exports to northwest Europe remain steady, and changes in gas demand for power generation are minimal. The market continues in a relatively strong, volatile pattern seen since last week, with close attention needed on further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz.
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