Update for XRP Holders: No Clarity In 2026

Galaxy’s Downgrade

The drop is steep. Galaxy’s estimate peaked at 75% shortly after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill in May. Since then, the odds have fallen steadily. They slid to 60% in early June, then 50% in late June, then 30% after a combined legislative text was released on July 24. The latest cut to 10% came in mid-August.

Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, identified time as the core problem. The Senate reconvenes on September 14. It has roughly two to three weeks before the next recess. Thorn said the bill could only pass if it dominates the entire working session.

What the Bill Needs

The CLARITY Act requires 60 votes in the Senate to clear the cloture threshold. Senator Bernie Moreno confirmed that all 53 Senate Republicans will vote to advance it. That leaves the bill needing at least 7 Democrats to cross over.

Senator Moreno also pushed back on reports of unresolved issues. He stated that an agreement was reached weeks ago and that all parties are expected to honor their commitments. The cloture vote is now scheduled for September 15.

What Happens if It Fails?

A failed vote does not end the road for Ripple or XRP. As one community member stated, XRP has other ways. Ripple is pursuing an OCC charter alongside its legislative efforts. The company already secured conditional approval. If the CLARITY Act does not pass, the OCC charter becomes the primary vehicle for federal legitimacy. Ripple’s regulatory position strengthens either way.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has also addressed the possibility of the bill failing this year. She argued that stablecoins are not driving deposit flight from community banks and that the CLARITY Act imposes stricter rules on stablecoin issuers than current law does.

XRP and the September Vote

XRP social sentiment has remained bullish despite the legislative delay. Market participants appear focused on September 15 rather than the current odds. Galaxy’s 10% figure reflects the calendar, not the content of the bill. The vote has been scheduled, and the outcome depends on whether enough Democrats will cross over to vote for the bill.