US Dollar: Data-driven outlook in focus – MUFG

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee note that upcoming US economic data will be crucial for the US Dollar outlook. They highlight that softer PPI and labour market figures have trimmed near-term Fed tightening expectations, but inflation remains above target and December hike odds are still elevated. Industrial production and PMI surveys will guide views on how restrictive Fed policy must stay.

Fed path hinges on activity data

"In the coming week, US economic data could help determine whether the recent moderation in US PPI and labour market data translates into a softer USD outlook or merely a temporary pause in the dollar's strength."

"Following weaker July payrolls and softer producer prices, markets have modestly pared back near-term Fed tightening expectations."

"However, with inflation still well above the Fed's 2% target and December hike odds remaining elevated, upcoming US activity data including industrial production and PMI surveys will be closely watched."

"Stronger-than-expected activity data could reinforce the view that the Fed needs to keep policy restrictive for longer."