U.S. initial jobless claims moderately increased to 209,000; with low inflation, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in September has greatly increased.

Zhihu Finance APP noted that after a period of staying near historic lows, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose last week. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, for the week ending August 8, first-time unemployment benefit claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000. The median estimate in an economists' survey was 202,000.

The number of continuing unemployment benefit claims, a measure of those receiving jobless benefits, dropped to 1.78 million in the previous week.

The increase in claims may reflect typical summer volatility, during which seasonal employment patterns and holiday timing often affect the data. Economists will monitor more than one week of data before reassessing recent labor market stability.

The increase in first-time U.S. unemployment benefit claims exceeded expectations

The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, a metric to smooth out volatility, remained unchanged last week at 199,000.

Last week, the U.S. government reported that non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 last month, and figures for May and June were revised downward. Employment growth tends to slow in the summer, a phenomenon economists attribute to the difficulty of adjusting data for seasonal fluctuations related to the end of the academic year.

This year, the number of claims has remained at the lower end of its range of 189,000–230,000. A National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey this week also confirmed the labor market’s stability, showing a rebound in the indicator measuring small business employment in July after four consecutive months of decline. If labor market stability and modest inflation signs persist, the Federal Reserve may be able to keep interest rates unchanged in September.

Last month, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 3.50%–3.75%. Three members of the policy-setting committee dissented, “preferring” to raise rates by 25 basis points.