Singapore Dollar: Upside risk builds against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD closed little changed around 1.2800, with the S$NEER trading 1.7% above its mid-point and implying a 1.2760–1.2822 range. Their short-term view keeps the pair confined between 1.2785 and 1.2815, while the 1–3 weeks outlook highlights downside risk toward 1.2740 if 1.2765 breaks.

Dollar-Singapore stays range bound

"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Monday’s price action, we stated yesterday that “there has been no clear increase in upward momentum,” and we held the view that USD “is likely to range-trade between 1.2785 and 1.2815.” Our view of range-trading was not wrong, though USD traded within a narrower range than expected (1.2797/1.2816) before closing little changed at 1.2800 (-0.05%). Momentum remains flat and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 1.2785 and 1.2815."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.2815), we highlighted that while the recent strong momentum “suggests further downside risk, USD must break and hold below the significant support at 1.2790 before further declines are likely.” After USD closed at 1.2785 on Friday, we highlighted yesterday (11 Aug, spot at 1.2805) that “while the price action continues to suggest downside risk, USD must break clearly below 1.2765 before a move to 1.2740 can be expected.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.2840 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached."