Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank cautious on hikes – Commerzbank

Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% in June but signaled a higher chance of another hike, with the year-end rate forecast just over 4.5%. Mixed July inflation data and elevated price pressures suggest rates may stay on hold tomorrow, with a possible move postponed to September as the bank maintains a vigilant tone.

Policy on hold as inflation stays high

"Accordingly, the forecast for the policy rate was set slightly higher than in March and stands at just over 4.5% at year-end (previously “between 4.25% and 4.50%”)."

"Overall, both headline and core inflation remain too high compared to the 2% target, and a clear downward trend is difficult to discern."

"However, in my view, a rate hike at tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting is unlikely."

"Norges Bank will likely want to wait for further data and - if necessary - raise the policy rate only in September, once the new forecasts are available."

"At the same time, however, Norges Bank will continue to sound vigilant, cautious, and hawkish tomorrow, sticking to its June stance but showing no panic regarding an interest rate hike."