Gold Price: LBMA Snapshot Survey of Professional Analysts

Gold is forecast to price at around $4,500 at year-end according to the average of a survey of 16 professional analysts conducted, during July, by LBMA. The highest year-end number from the survey was $5,100, the lowest $3,879.

During the first seven months of 2026, the gold price recorded unusually high volatility, trading from an all-time high, on 29 January, of $5,501.70, through a 2026 low of $3,978.55 (1 July), to end July at $4,026.60, a decline of 8.2% during the year thus far. The average price during the period was $4,595.75, some $135 below the average (for the whole year) predicted by 28 professional analysts polled by LBMA in January.

The mid-year pulse check provides an update to these figures and reveals that expectations have come into line with the reality of the first seven months. In short, the predicted whole year average for the gold price is $4,604, with forecast price highs during the second half of the year ranging from $4,872 to $5,800, and lows bottoming out at $3,450.

The analysts’ list of drivers of the gold price - geopolitical issues notably in the Middle East, US inflation, the Federal Reserve’s direction of travel, central bank buying - has not materially altered since the beginning of the year although the emphasis has changed with greater attention being paid to the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh.

Of the 16 respondents to the survey, five cited Iran as of primary concern, one focused on central banks’ continuing appetite for gold, and the remainder listed the Fed, and its response to US inflation numbers.