Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening risks support JPY – BNY

BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that long-end JGB yields are rising on inflation and fiscal concerns, with markets pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end. The BoJ’s July MPM Summary of Opinions signals accommodative conditions but a tilt toward further tightening, with risks of larger hikes if action is delayed.

BoJ debate shifts to overshoot risks

"Long-end JGB pressure is building. Inflation risks and fiscal concerns have pushed long-end JGB yields toward the upper end of recent ranges."

"Several members argued that the bank should keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting to assess the lagged impact of the previous hike, but the overall tone favors further tightening."

"The debate has shifted away from lifting inflation to 2% and onto preventing an overshoot."

"Members also warned that waiting too long could force faster, larger rate hikes later, risking a “double shock.”"

"Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end."