Bitcoin Bear Market Over? Top Analysts Turn Bullish, but History Says Otherwise

Ever since bitcoin started plunging real hard at the start of the new year and dumped to and eventually below $60,000, analysts have been focused on trying to determine where the bottom is. As usual, they are split into two camps: two who believe another crash is coming, and the optimists indicating that the worst is behind us.

Crypto X, though, was a little surprised on Friday when three analysts showed an interesting and unexpected convergence, with Ali Martinez, Michaël van de Poppe, and Merlijn The Trader posting opinions that essentially determined BTC is about to break out.

Analysts Turn Bullish

Martinez emerged as arguably the most bullish, highlighting several factors that have aligned for his major breakout call. He noted that improving on-chain data and technical indicators suggest that BTC has likely established a local bottom. He added that selling pressure has faded, while long-term accumulation continues. The combination creates favorable conditions that have historically preceded meaningful upside moves.

Van de Poppe echoed the statement, reaching a similar conclusion from a macro perspective. He argued that BTC’s decline toward $60,000 resembles previous bull-market corrections, which often shook out leveraged traders before the broader uptrend resumed.

In his view, similar moves were a healthy reset rather than the deepening of a bear market, with liquidity returning and buyers gradually stepping back in. Merlijn The Trader, on the other hand, commented that the cryptocurrency has completed a classic breakdown-and-reclaim pattern that frequently marks the end of corrections.

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Too Good to Be True?

The scenario above sounds appealing, right? But there’s also the other side of the coin, and BTC’s history suggests investors should remain cautious whenever the market speaks with such firm conviction. One of the asset’s defining characteristics over the past decade has been its tendency to inflict maximum pain on the majority. It has moved time and time again precisely in the opposite direction of prevailing expectations.

Some of the most significant rallies came after market shocks: the run after the COVID-19 crash, the aftermath of the FTX collapse in late 2022, and so on. In contrast, it has slumped once the market has become too greedy and optimistic: recall the October 2025 crash and subsequent 55% correction.

Of course, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the aforementioned analyses are wrong. Many of the factors they named are objectively constructive and promising. However, markets rarely reward the obvious trade.

Don’t get us wrong – we remain BTC bulls. But we would also like to caution everyone who might go all in just because the sentiment among some top analysts has flipped.