Bernstein favors CleanSpark on AI execution as MARA awaits first commercial contract
Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein shared split ratings on two of the largest bitcoin miners pivoting to AI infrastructure, keeping CleanSpark (CLSK) at Outperform with a $24 price target and MARA Holdings (MARA) at Market-Perform with a $17 price target, in a pair of notes published Friday.
The divergence reflects on execution, according to Bernstein.
CleanSpark has a signed anchor tenant and a data center build is underway, while MARA is still waiting for its first commercial AI contract, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote.
CleanSpark secures AI tenant
CleanSpark's $6.6 billion 20-year triple-net lease covers 175 IT MW at its Sandersville site in Georgia, with a high-investment-grade global technology company as tenant. The lease carries an exclusivity agreement over CleanSpark's entire 885 MW Texas portfolio.
The miner has also partnered with the tenant's preferred engineering and construction firm for the Sandersville build, a step Bernstein said de-risks CleanSpark's first scaled AI deployment. Another supporting caveat is that the first data hall is expected in the fourth quarter of 2027.
Bernstein put project-level capex at roughly $1.9 billion, based on CleanSpark's guidance of $10 million to $12 million per IT MW. With the equity portion funded, the miner is now seeking secured project financing at a 90% loan-to-cost ratio, and held about $900 million in liquidity as of June 30, according to the note.
A Texas audit requirement for data center projects is expected to delay the schedule for ERCOT's Batch Zero process, with more clarity to be provided at a Public Utility Commission of Texas hearing on Aug. 20.
Regardless, CleanSpark's management does not expect the delay to change the energization timeline for its Sealy and Brazoria sites, Bernstein said. CleanSpark's 285 MW Sealy site, energizing in mid-2027, and the 300 MW first phase at Brazoria are expected to be included in ERCOT's base load for Batch Zero. Across Georgia, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Wyoming, the miner has roughly 2.1 GW of planned power capacity and has applied to expand its Washington campus from 86 MW to 500 MW.
MARA is still waiting for its catalyst
Bernstein drew the more cautious call on MARA, per the notes reviewed by The Block.
A commercial AI contract could be a re-rating catalyst for the stock, the analysts said, and MARA's management reiterated confidence in signing at least two AI leases by year-end.
Additionally, recent transactions could lift MARA's planned power portfolio to 4.2 GW, according to Bernstein.
The figure includes the 2 GW Matagorda County site in Texas, acquired for $600 million, with the purchase price tied to development milestones, and the pending 1 GW Long Ridge acquisition in Ohio, which awaits Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval.
MARA's partnership with Starwood also underpins the strategy. Analysts said it could pair the miner's power assets with Starwood's engineering and construction capabilities and more than 7 GW of delivered infrastructure. The two are progressing lease discussions across multiple sites.
Bernstein values both miners on a sum-of-the-parts basis, applying about 8x EV to estimated 2027 adjusted EBITDA for the mining business, marking bitcoin holdings at current prices, and assigning $3 million per megawatt for incremental power available for AI.
CLSK closed at $12.75 on Aug. 6, an 88% discount to Bernstein's target, while MARA closed at $10.65, 60% below its $17 target, according to the notes and The Block’s crypto equities price page.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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