Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $62.20 in countdown to US NFP data

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1% higher to near $62.20 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal rises ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

TD Securities looks for a modest July payrolls rebound with unemployment steady

According to TD Securities, July’s jobs report is expected to show only a slight improvement after June’s downside surprise. The bank’s economists anticipate that "July NFP picked up modestly to 70k after surprising to the downside with 57k in June," pointing to a still subdued pace of hiring. They also expect the jobless rate to hold its recent gains, noting that "the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.2% after declining in June," consistent with a labor market that remains broadly stable rather than decisively weakening.

The official employment data is expected to have a significant influence on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations in the absence of “forward-guidance” from the central bank.

On the global front, a sharp recovery in oil prices due to diminished hopes of an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, could limit the upside in the Silver price.

At press time, the WTI Oil price holds on Thursday’s recovery move to near $77.00.

Higher oil prices boost global inflation projections, a scenario that prompts fears of interest rate hikes by central banks, which is unfavorable for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades at around $62.20 above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.66, keeping the near-term bias constructive as price holds over this key trend reference.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.27 sits in positive territory without being overbought, hinting that bullish momentum remains in place but not yet overstretched.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at $59.66, which reinforces the broader bullish structure as long as it holds. The white metal could return to the Year-To-Date (YTD) low at 54.77 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA. On the upside, the July 6 high at $63.28 is the immediate barrier; a decisive break above the same would open the door towards the June 22 high at $67.17.