Microsoft's AI revenue heavily relies on OpenAI, accounting for up to 70% of revenue
In the fiscal year ending this June, Microsoft recorded $24.1 billion in revenue from OpenAI. Previously, Microsoft's CEO stated that as of the end of March, the annualized revenue from Microsoft's AI business reached $37 billion. Based on this calculation, more than half, and possibly up to about 70%, of Microsoft's actual AI revenue comes from OpenAI, highlighting Microsoft's strong dependence on OpenAI.
Microsoft's financial dependence on OpenAI is much deeper than previously known by the public.
According to documents submitted by Microsoft last week, in the fiscal year ending June of this year, Microsoft generated $24.1 billion in revenue from OpenAI. This figure means that OpenAI contributed more than half, and possibly as much as about 70%, of Microsoft’s total AI business revenue.
This disclosure has drawn high attention from investors. The market has long questioned the true composition of Microsoft’s AI revenue, and the latest data shows that even as Microsoft repeatedly emphasizes its expanding AI portfolio, its core growth driver remains largely tied to a single source.
KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader pointed out that it remains a crucial unanswered question how much of OpenAI’s contribution comes from cloud services versus revenue sharing agreements.
As of press time, Microsoft’s shares dropped 0.5% in intraday trading on Wednesday.
$24.1 Billion: OpenAI’s Contribution to Microsoft
In the regulatory filing submitted last week, Microsoft disclosed that it recorded $24.1 billion in sales from OpenAI in the fiscal year ending June 2025.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella had previously stated that as of the end of the March quarter, the company’s AI business had an annualized revenue run rate of about $37 billion. However, Microsoft did not update this total during the release of its fourth-quarter earnings last week.
According to Bloomberg’s calculation, based on Microsoft’s disclosed 123% year-on-year growth for the March quarter, the company’s AI business generated roughly $34 billion in revenue for the fiscal year ending in June. On this basis, OpenAI’s $24.1 billion accounts for nearly 70% of the total.
Microsoft has publicly disclosed the scale of its overall AI business only twice: once in the December 2024 quarter, with an annualized run rate exceeding $13 billion, and once in the March 2025 quarter, surpassing $37 billion.
The rapid growth between the two disclosures impressed the market, but the specific weight of OpenAI in that growth only emerged through this latest filing.
Collaboration Structure: How OpenAI Pays Microsoft
According to the agreement between the two companies, OpenAI pays Microsoft for computing resources, costs related to AI model development, and a certain percentage of revenue sharing.
A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed that the $24.1 billion figure covers all sales and revenue sharing received from OpenAI.
Jackson Ader emphasized that this makeup is crucial:
"The greater the proportion of revenue from providing services to OpenAI, as opposed to investment returns, the more positively I evaluate this part of the business."
His logic is that service revenue reflects genuine business delivery capability, rather than accounting contributions arising from financial arrangements.
Microsoft’s Efforts to Diversify Dependence Show Limited Results
Facing market concerns over reliance on a single source, Microsoft has in recent years continually tried to reduce its dependence on OpenAI. The company has supported rival Anthropic PBC and accelerated development of its own AI models.
However, the disclosed data from this filing suggests that these efforts have yet to achieve meaningful diversification at the revenue level.
Measured by total revenue, OpenAI’s share is less than 10%—Microsoft added about $51 billion in new commercial bookings last quarter, mainly driven by customers other than AI startups.
But in terms of incremental annual bookings, OpenAI remains the main contributor.
Timing of Disclosure: Possibly Related to OpenAI’s IPO Plans
Notably, the timing of this detailed disclosure is quite delicate.
Accounting researcher and Nonlinear Analytics founder Olga Usvyatsky pointed out in a research note that this information may be connected to OpenAI’s preparations for an initial public offering (IPO).
Prior to this disclosure, Microsoft had never explicitly released complete revenue figures received from OpenAI.
As OpenAI moves towards a public listing, the financial relationship between the two companies will come under more rigorous scrutiny, and investors’ requirements for transparency of the partnership’s structure will also increase accordingly.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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