Maxim Group lowers Strategy price target to $215, still sees 120% upside

Maxim Group analyst Matthew Galinko still thinks Strategy is a buy. He just thinks it’s a slightly less expensive buy than he did before.

The firm cut its 12-month price target on MSTR from $250 to $215 while reaffirming its Buy rating. With shares trading around $97, that revised target still implies roughly 120% upside. In other words, Galinko lopped off $35 and the stock would still need to more than double to hit his number.

What’s behind the trim

The adjustment reflects a familiar cocktail of factors: persistent stock volatility, fluctuating Bitcoin prices, and the general uncertainty that comes with a company whose share price is essentially a leveraged bet on a single asset. Strategy’s stock doesn’t just correlate with Bitcoin. It amplifies it, in both directions.

Maxim Group reiterated its confidence in both Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin accumulation strategy and its legacy analytical software business as drivers of long-term value.

The $44.1 billion ATM machine

One of the more notable developments fueling the bull case: Strategy has expanded its at-the-market equity offering capacity to $44.1 billion. That’s not a typo.

ATM offerings let a company sell new shares directly into the open market at prevailing prices, whenever it wants, without the usual fanfare of a traditional stock offering. Strategy plans to use that capacity to buy more Bitcoin.

Under Saylor’s leadership, Strategy has become the single largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, and this expanded ATM capacity signals no intention of slowing down. The playbook is straightforward: raise capital through equity issuance, convert that capital into Bitcoin, and let the company’s stock serve as a kind of publicly traded Bitcoin fund with extra leverage baked in.

The MSTR-as-Bitcoin-proxy trade

Every time Strategy sells new shares to buy Bitcoin, existing shareholders face dilution. The bet is that the Bitcoin purchased with those proceeds will appreciate enough to more than offset the dilutive impact.

Maxim Group isn’t alone in maintaining a constructive view despite trimming numbers. Other firms, including Clear Street, have similarly adjusted their targets while keeping positive ratings.

The risk, as always, is a prolonged Bitcoin bear market. If Bitcoin enters an extended downturn, Strategy’s leveraged position becomes a liability rather than an asset, and that massive ATM capacity could shift from “strategic advantage” to “dilution machine” in the market’s eyes.