Could Bitcoin [BTC] break its recurring August bearish trend?
So far, Bitcoin is up more than 2% this month, marking a clear divergence from its typical August performance. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin hasn’t posted a positive August since the 2021 cycle. From 2022 to 2025, the month averaged losses of nearly 10%. Looking at one key on-chain metric, a similar setup cannot be ruled out.
From a technical lens, Bitcoin’s resilience continues to stand out. Despite the selling pressure seen at the start of Q3, BTC has held firmly above $60k. However, a closer look shows Bitcoin dominance remains below the key 60% resistance level, suggesting the recent capital inflows are not yet being led by Bitcoin.
That said, this dynamic may be starting to shift.
July closed with Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) still below 60%, while Ethereum dominance (ETH.D) rallied 11%, its strongest monthly gain since August 2025. But that momentum hasn’t carried into August. ETH.D has already faced rejection at the 10.4% resistance level, while BTC.D has started moving higher.
In short, capital appears to be rotating back into Bitcoin, a shift that could support BTC if institutional inflows remain strong throughout August. And notably, this is where Bitcoin’s ETF flows start to matter. The shift in dominance doesn’t appear to be happening in isolation.
Instead, it suggests investors are positioning back into Bitcoin, increasing the odds that BTC could finally break its historically bearish August trend.
Taken together, the data suggests institutions aren’t fading Bitcoin’s historical August weakness.
Instead, they’re continuing to build exposure, strengthening the case that this rally is being driven by steady institutional demand rather than short-term speculation. If that trend holds, it could mark a clear break from Bitcoin’s usual August seasonality.
That also puts BTC.D back in focus. A sustained move higher would signal that fresh capital is flowing directly into BTC, strengthening the odds of an extended rally.
