US June PCE Inflation Transmission Monitoring

Core PCE below expectations, GDP growth rate misses expectations, and the market briefly digests the possibility of a rate cut. Market pricing reaction: ─ S&P 500 E-mini futures: +0.66% ─ Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures: +1.48% ─ Spot gold: surged nearly $10 then retreated about $15Cross-asset divergence observation: Core PCE month-on-month increase was only +0.1%, missing expectations, combined with weak GDP data, which should have comprehensively suppressed the dollar and boosted gold based on rate cut logic. However, spot gold showed a typical “surge then retreat” after the data release. Considering that the 30-year US Treasury yield had previously soared to a 19-year high, the market may be betting that inflation risks have not been fundamentally eliminated, and upward pressure on long-term rates is squeezing gold's allocation value. Watch whether gold effectively breaks below the pre-data low.