Prediction markets indicate a 78% probability that OpenAI will release GPT-6 before September 30

Prediction market traders price the probability of OpenAI releasing GPT-6 before September 30 at approximately 78%. The relevant Polymarket trading volume is about $731,000, with the probability of a contract for release before September 30 rising to 77%, the probability for release before August 31 in the mid 30% range, and the probability for release before August 21 dropping to 15%. On Myriad, the probability for a September release has risen to 77%. OpenAI has not yet publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or release date. GPT-5.6 Sol was released on July 9. OpenAI confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and the pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity assessment. OpenAI has created 250 new positions in Dublin, and SoftBank is providing financing for OpenAI-related developments through a $4 billion bridge loan.