Polymarket has lowered the probability of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire before August 31 to roughly 51%–52%. The contract has fallen about three percentage points over the past week as traders reassess the durability of any pause in military action.
According to reports, more than $2.5 million has entered the market, reflecting strong attention to the conflict’s diplomatic and economic consequences. The decline also comes as fresh strike risks unsettle the crypto market and other risk-sensitive assets.
The Polymarket contract uses a narrower standard than a formal diplomatic agreement between Washington and Tehran. It resolves “Yes” only after 14 continuous days without a qualifying U.S. military strike inside Iranian territory.
Therefore, one qualifying attack would restart the countdown and reduce the time available before the August 31 deadline. That condition helps explain why the US-Iran ceasefire odds remain close to an even split.
Diplomatic contacts have continued despite the weaker market reading. President Donald Trump said on July 24 that discussions remained active, although he added that Iran was not ready for a final agreement.
Meanwhile, military activity has continued to complicate the process. Reports cited expanded U.S. operations against Iranian military infrastructure, including targets beyond coastal areas.
Iran has also responded with attacks affecting shipping lanes and regional U.S. facilities. Together, those developments have kept the Polymarket contract sensitive to every reported military action.
Against that backdrop, energy markets have recorded some of the clearest reactions during earlier escalations. Brent crude, for instance, previously climbed above $90 per barrel as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over global oil supplies.
Consequently, higher oil prices can lift inflation expectations, pressure corporate costs, and complicate interest-rate policy. In turn, equity markets have also shown weakness during previous periods of U.S.-Iran confrontation as investors shifted toward more defensive positions.
Likewise, technology and semiconductor shares faced selling pressure as capital flowed into safer assets. The crypto market followed a similar risk-off pattern during the initial wave of geopolitical uncertainty.
Moreover, Bitcoin has increasingly moved in tandem with the broader macro assets during major security shocks. Ethereum and smaller cryptocurrencies, however, have recorded even larger swings as they depend more heavily on speculative capital flows.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar has generally strengthened during periods of heightened geopolitical risk. As a result, a stronger dollar can tighten financial conditions and create additional headwinds for both equities and the crypto market.
Overall, Polymarket probabilities reflect collective market expectations rather than guaranteed outcomes. With the contract hovering near 51%, traders remain divided on whether a two-week pause in U.S. military action will be achieved before the August 31 deadline.
Related: US-Iran Escalation Shakes Crypto as Bitcoin ETF Outflows Deepen
