South Korean Won: Strong GDP and inflows support Won – Commerzbank

Commerzbank reports that South Korea’s advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. Robust AI-related semiconductor demand and resilient domestic spending underpin growth. The strong data support prospects of a further 25bp Bank of Korea hike in August. USD/KRW fell to 1,475, with the Won aided by portfolio inflows into bonds and equities.

Growth surprise bolsters BoK hike case

"The advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% qoq sa (Bloomberg consensus: 0.4%) vs 1.8% in Q1. This suggests that growth momentum remained resilient despite energy supply disruptions."

"On an annual basis, the economy expanded 3.7% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 3.5%) vs 3.8% previously. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF) recently upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 3.0% from 2.0%, reflecting the stronger outlook for exports and investment."

"On monetary policy, the strong Q2 GDP reading supports the case of another 25bp hike to 3.0% by the Bank of Korea (BoK) at the 27 August meeting. At the previous meeting, Governor Shin Hyun-sung described August as a “live” meeting, reinforcing the BoK’s data-dependent approach."

"With growth remaining resilient, inflation above target, and the AI-driven export boom broadening into wages and domestic demand, policymakers have scope to continue normalising policy."

"In FX, USD-KRW fell 0.2% to 1,475 yesterday. The pair initially dropped 0.9% following the GDP release before paring some of its losses later in the session. Portfolio inflows provided support for KRW, with foreign investors purchasing USD1.0bn of domestic bonds and USD3.7bn of equities so far this week."