Grayscale: Bitcoin may have bottomed if the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates

BlockBeats news, on July 23, Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl posted that there are currently two main perspectives on when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one follows the "four-year cycle," and the other views Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macroeconomic factors.

The "four-year cycle" perspective holds that the halving event remains the core driver of Bitcoin's price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin typically bottoms about one year after the cycle peak and about 2.5 years after halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of around 80%. According to this pattern, Bitcoin could still decline further in this cycle and form a bottom in September or October.

The other perspective believes that, in the future, Bitcoin's price will be influenced more by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy, just like other major assets. In past bear markets, Bitcoin's declines usually coincided with slowing economic growth or rising real interest rates. This cycle's drop has similarly occurred amid rising expectations of rate hikes and increasing real interest rates.

Pandl said he agrees more with the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve stops raising rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed.