「TACO Transaction」 Heating Up Again: Model Predicts Trump May Shift Iran Policy by Late July

BlockBeats News, July 22: Wall Street's popular "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade is receiving support from a quant model. The geopolitical consulting firm Signum Global Advisors' analyst team is using four indicators—Brent crude oil prices, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, Hormuz shipping traffic, and the S&P 500 index—to predict that Trump may adjust his hardline policy toward Iran by the end of July.

The model shows that Trump typically needs a market move of about 2.3 to 3.4 standard deviations to pivot his policy, with an average threshold of around 2.9 standard deviations. According to the current market trend, analysts believe the "TACO Moment" has not yet arrived but is approaching, likely to occur as early as July 22 and no later than July 30, with July 26 seen as the most probable timing.

Currently, the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate market pressures, with Brent crude oil prices surpassing $91 per barrel, and the U.S. average gasoline price exceeding $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-June. Shipping disruptions in the Hormuz Strait, rising war costs, and U.S. military casualties are increasing the political pressure on the Trump administration.

Republican insiders have warned that if oil prices remain high for an extended period, energy costs could become a midterm election risk factor. Some conservative figures have stated that if the oil price breaches $90 during the current administration, it will significantly weaken voter support.

Analysts believe that Trump's current tough stance may partly aim to force Iran back to the negotiating table, but as the conflict persists, the U.S. government will face increased policy pressure between "further escalation" and "reducing military pressure."