In the first half of 2026, the total amount of suspicious transactions in the prediction market is estimated to be around 200 million US dollars, with a surge in insider trading.

AiCoin2026/07/21 00:02

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According to Bloomberg Businessweek, from January to June 2026, the total amount of suspicious transactions flagged in prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket was about 200 million US dollars. Bloomberg’s analysis of approximately 34,000 trades flagged by Polysights shows that geopolitical and war-related bets were the main drivers, with Iran-related bets peaking in late February. Of the flagged transactions, 71% were funded through US-regulated crypto exchanges. The top 1% of profitable wallets captured more than half of the profits, with 57% of those wallets created within 24 hours before the trades.

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OPEC's monthly report shows that Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil production in October rose to 10.56 million barrels, just several hundred thousand barrels lower than the pre-war level in February and slightly above its quoted limit under the OPEC framework. Iraq's daily output in October also reached approximately 4.9 million barrels, a new high since the outbreak of war. Meanwhile, after the UAE exited OPEC and began competing in the market independently, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia recently slashed their official December cargo prices for Asian buyers, intensifying the competitive landscape.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/11 17:31