The probability of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait being closed before the end of August has risen to 21% on Polymarket.
Ansar Allah, the Houthi armed group in Yemen, has announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, stating that the operation is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye" and aims to disrupt Saudi crude oil export flows. The relevant channel involves the transportation of more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil.
The outcome of this prediction contract is determined based on maritime trade flow data published by PortWatch, the IMF platform. If the 7-day moving average of ships arriving at the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is less than or equal to 10 on any date from the market's creation to the contract's expiry date, the contract will settle as "Yes".
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Saudi Arabia's oil production in October surged by 26%, reaching the highest level since the onset of the conflict, while Brent crude has dropped over 20% this month
OPEC's monthly report shows that Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil production in October rose to 10.56 million barrels, just several hundred thousand barrels lower than the pre-war level in February and slightly above its quoted limit under the OPEC framework. Iraq's daily output in October also reached approximately 4.9 million barrels, a new high since the outbreak of war. Meanwhile, after the UAE exited OPEC and began competing in the market independently, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia recently slashed their official December cargo prices for Asian buyers, intensifying the competitive landscape.
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