Capital Economics: The US Treasury yield curve may become inverted
According to Golden Ten Data, Capital Economics stated that the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields will further narrow in the coming months, and the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a complete inversion of the yield curve. This difference is due to expectations of short-term real interest rates rising more than those for the long term, and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points over the next year.
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Saudi Arabia's oil production in October surged by 26%, reaching the highest level since the onset of the conflict, while Brent crude has dropped over 20% this month
OPEC's monthly report shows that Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil production in October rose to 10.56 million barrels, just several hundred thousand barrels lower than the pre-war level in February and slightly above its quoted limit under the OPEC framework. Iraq's daily output in October also reached approximately 4.9 million barrels, a new high since the outbreak of war. Meanwhile, after the UAE exited OPEC and began competing in the market independently, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia recently slashed their official December cargo prices for Asian buyers, intensifying the competitive landscape.
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