Palm oil rebounds to 4,573 ringgit, with geopolitical premium and climate risks jointly supporting demand logic.

⑴ The Malaysia Derivatives Exchange's palm oil contract for September delivery closed up 40 ringgit on Tuesday, reaching 4,573 ringgit per ton. Intraday buying was mainly driven by the resonance of multiple bullish factors. The escalation of tensions between the US and Iran has pushed up the overnight prices of competing vegetable oils, providing room for palm oil price correction.⑵ Kenanga Futures pointed out in its report that market concerns over a potential super El Niño phenomenon are rising. Extreme weather may constrain long-term output expectations in the main Southeast Asian producing regions. Coupled with the significant price discount that palm oil still maintains relative to soybean oil, these factors are jointly providing marginal support for export demand.⑶ From the perspective of cross-product price comparison logic, if the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil continues to widen, price-sensitive buyers will be prompted to increase their proportion of palm oil purchases. Additionally, crude oil price fluctuations caused by Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts are indirectly transmitted to the vegetable oil pricing system via the biodiesel blending profitability chain.⑷ The next focal points of attention are the rainfall distribution in production areas of Malaysia and the US Department of Agriculture's July supply and demand report, which will adjust the direction of global vegetable oil inventory. If El Niño intensity signals become clearer, distant contracts may gain stronger weather risk premium support.