Several institutions forecast the U.S. June CPI and core CPI year-on-year data

US June CPI year-on-year previous value was 4.2%, market consensus is 3.8%. JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, JEFFERIES predict 3.7%; UBS, Wells Fargo predict 3.7%; Citigroup, BofA, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, HSBC, ING predict 3.8%; Goldman, BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, Helaba, Capital Economics predict 3.9%; Berenberg, DBS, Sumitomo, Scotiabank predict 4.0%. US June core CPI year-on-year previous value was 2.9%, market consensus is 2.8%. Deutsche Bank predicts 2.7%, BNP Paribas predicts 3.0%; ING, Citigroup, Goldman, HSBC, JP Morgan, Nomura, JEFFERIES, UBS, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley predict 2.8%; BofA, Capital Economics, Sumitomo, Danske, Scotiabank, Standard Chartered, UniCredit, Helaba predict 2.9%. AI Interpretation: Several top investment banks have highly concentrated forecasts for US CPI and core CPI in June, indicating a consensus in the market regarding the downward trend in inflation. The narrowing of core inflation expectations reflects a substantial easing of price pressures. This consensus decreases the risk of market volatility at the time of data release and provides a clear benchmark for the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy decisions. The current path of inflation decline is in line with market judgments on a soft landing for the economy and further solidifies the logical basis for a shift in interest rate policy.