Research and gold purchasing behavior mutually reinforce each other, as central banks around the world continue to accumulate gold, making it the main theme for gold in the second half of the year

　　During the gold price pullback in June, major Asian countries, Poland, and other core central banks increased their gold purchases against the trend, creating a stark contrast with retail and speculative investors who sold gold to chase technology-related stocks. Central bank gold accumulation is not a short-term game between interest rates and inflation, but rather a decades-long strategy for global monetary diversification. The gold price decline instead provides an ideal entry opportunity for official reserves. Ordinary investors should pay close attention to this long-term value signal.

　　Survey releases boost expectations for increased holdings, real purchase data provides validation

　　Last month, two surveys targeting global reserve management institutions delivered clear and consistent bullish signals. The World Gold Council’s survey found that a record-high 45% of central banks plan to increase gold reserves over the next 12 months. The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum’s annual survey also noted that, amid the fragmentation of the global financial system and accelerated diversification of reserves by various countries, gold remains the top choice among reserve assets.

　　While surveys reflect policy planning, subsequently released official reserve data confirm market expectations through real monetary moves. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, global central banks’ net gold reserves increased by 41 tons in May, continuing a strong sovereign gold buying trend that has persisted for years. As gold prices continued to adjust in June, major official buyers did not slow down—instead, they seized low prices to expand their purchases. The central bank of a major Asian country added 15 tons of gold during the month, marking 20 consecutive months of purchases, and also set the largest monthly increase this year. Poland’s buying was even more aggressive—the National Bank of Poland accumulated 82 tons of gold in the first half of 2026, with its president, Adam Glapiński, publicly stating that the central bank is actively taking advantage of falling gold prices to expand its reserves.

　　Divergence between institutional and retail behavior, completely different capital operation logic

　　The central banks’ contrarian increase in gold positions is a stark contrast to the transaction choices made by ordinary market participants. Short-term speculative funds are leaving the gold market and moving into AI-themed stocks that offer more upside elasticity; coupled with increased expectations of rate hikes and rising opportunity costs of holding gold, many retail investors are choosing to reduce their gold holdings. On one hand, official institutions are buying more on declines; on the other, private funds are exiting on corrections. The fundamental reason for these two opposing strategies lies in the difference between short-term trading mindsets and long-term strategic allocations.

　　When central banks buy gold, they do not focus on monthly inflation readings or the Fed’s short-term interest rate adjustments, nor do they aim to chase short-term price swings. All gold accumulation serves the purpose of long-term monetary security planning. Reserve managers evaluate global financial risks over decades and build balance sheets capable of withstanding geopolitical conflict, sharp currency fluctuations, and changes in a multipolar monetary system.

　　Gold price pullbacks do not diminish its long-term allocation value; investors should follow the central banks' long-term strategy

　　Precisely because gold possesses unique long-term safe-haven and reserve value, the recent phase of gold price weakness has not dampened official enthusiasm for gold purchases. On the contrary, the price correction further reduces reserve allocation costs, creating a rare window for central banks globally to accumulate more gold.

　　Most retail investors focus on short-term interest rate fluctuations and miss the underlying value of gold amid the ongoing restructuring of the global currency system.

　　Given the current environment of frequent global geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credibility, and the push for diversified reserves by multiple countries, the long cycle of central bank gold accumulation will not end in the short term. Ordinary investors ought to step beyond the confines of short-term trading volatility, take seriously the long-term allocation signals continuously released by central banks, and rationally consider the medium- and long-term value of gold for preserving value and hedging risks.

Editor: Zhu Henan