Bitcoin might be in dire straits, but top institutional analysts believe a cyclical turnaround may be brewing.
According to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization may have finally reached a key psychological and mathematical floor.
"As for Bitcoin, it too may be in an accumulation zone (in my view)," Timmer shared on X. "At $60k it’s getting ever closer to its power law support line."
As reported by U.Today, Fidelity’s famous "Periodic Table of Investment Returns" recently showed alternative assets being plagued by extreme underperformance.
Emerging markets, small-caps, and Japanese equities claimed top spots on the 2026 leaderboard. In the meantime, Bitcoin, spot gold, and long-term treasuries clustered together at the absolute bottom.
The power law model
Historically, when the price hits the top of the corridor, the chart marks a "distribution zone".
This occurred during the historic peaks of $1,137 (+97% deviation), $19,042 (+90% deviation), and $64,337 (+80% deviation).
Conversely, major buying opportunities tend to emerge when the price compresses to the bottom of the corridor. In the 2014–2015 bear market, the price bottomed at $230 against a power law support calculation of $252 (-62% deviation).
In the 2018 capitulation, the price hit a floor of $3,204 against a support line estimate of $2,521 (-53% deviation)
The 2022 crypto winter floor of $16,366 perfectly caught the orange support line tracking at $15,006 (-57% deviation).
The lower panel of Fidelity's research chart uses a dual-indicator system to determine true market exhaustion: pink bars tracking the direct percentage deviation from the power law trendline, and blue bars charting the 52-week Z-score of the Bitcoin/Gold ratio.
The market is in the final stages of a valuation reset. The weekly data shows Bitcoin sitting at a local level of $62,685. It is a stone's throw away from its long-term power law support line sitting at $56,488.
Furthermore, the data shows a -56% power law deviation aligned with a -100% Z-score reading. Historically, whenever the 52-week Z-score compresses to the -100% to -120% range (as seen in late 2014, late 2018, and late 2022), it indicates that Bitcoin has become mathematically exhausted relative to gold.
Bitcoin is currently in the middle of printing a modest short-term reversal, currently trading at $63,957.
