Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Is ETH’s 5% Q3 rally the start of a structural rotation?

Bitget

News

AMBCrypto2026/07/12 09:03

By:AMBCrypto

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

Ethereum [ETH] has historically struggled to sustain its outperformance against Bitcoin.

On the technical front, ETH/BTC last posted a strong quarterly rally in Q3 2025, surging 53%, marking its biggest quarterly gain since Q2 2021. However, sellers erased 50% of those gains as the rally lost momentum. This suggests the rotation was temporary, as capital continued to flow into Bitcoin.

Against this backdrop, the ratio’s 5% rally so far in Q3 appears too early to confirm a sustained rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance is once again pushing toward the key 60% resistance level, gaining 1.5% in July and signaling that capital may already be rotating back into Bitcoin.

@media only screen and (min-width: 0px) and (min-height: 0px) { div[id^="bsa-zone_1774359638628-7_123456"] { min-height: 50px; transition: min-height 0.3s ease; } } @media only screen and (min-width: 640px) and (min-height: 0px) { div[id^="bsa-zone_1774359638628-7_123456"] { min-height: 90px; } }

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Is ETH’s 5% Q3 rally the start of a structural rotation? image 0

Source: TradingView (ETH/BTC)

That said, Eric Trump’s recent post on X points in the opposite direction, supporting Ethereum’s rally.

Meanwhile, the on-chain data tells a similar story. Ethereum’s outperformance against Bitcoin [BTC] isn’t happening in isolation. Institutional positioning continues to back the move, with Ethereum ETFs attracting over $128 million in net inflows so far this month, outperforming Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s DATs are recovering, adding further support to Ethereum’s recent strength.

With that said, it may be too early to write off the current ETH/BTC uptrend as just another short-term rotation. The bigger question is whether smart money is positioning ahead of a structural shift that the broader market has yet to price in.

Ethereum’s latest catalyst puts the ETH/BTC ratio in the spotlight

A key catalyst may be reinforcing the institutional rotation into Ethereum.

Tom Lee pointed to Robinhood’s recently unveiled Layer 2 chain as a major differentiator, calling it a breakout product that has already generated more volume than many established DEXs. More importantly, the network uses ETH as its native gas token, and settles on Ethereum Layer 1. As activity on the chain grows, each transaction feeds back into Ethereum’s ecosystem, strengthening the long-term demand case for ETH.

The on-chain data backs this up. As the chart below shows, the amount of ETH bridged from Ethereum Layer 1 to the Robinhood Chain has jumped nearly 10x over the past week, surpassing $100 million. That suggests users are actively moving liquidity into Robinhood’s Layer 2 ecosystem, with ETH emerging as the network’s core asset for gas, settlement, and on-chain activity.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Is ETH’s 5% Q3 rally the start of a structural rotation? image 1

Source: Token Terminal

In this context, Ethereum’s outperformance against Bitcoin may be more than just another rotation.

Instead, the move looks increasingly driven by improving fundamentals, as institutional inflows, growing Layer 2 activity, and rising on-chain demand continue to strengthen Ethereum’s long-term investment case. If that trend holds, the ETH/BTC breakout could be the first sign of a broader capital rotation into Ethereum through Q3.

Final Summary

Ethereum’s rally against Bitcoin is backed by ETF inflows, stronger on-chain activity, and Robinhood’s Layer 2 ecosystem.
If these trends continue, the ETH/BTC breakout could signal a broader shift of capital into Ethereum in Q3.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

After the US October CPI exceeded expectations, Goldman Sachs and Nomura added a forecast for an interest rate hike in March next year, while Deutsche Bank included a forecast for a rate hike in January next year. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with a 13% probability for a 50 basis point hike. On Wednesday, the US Treasury spot market was closed, but Treasury futures continued to fall, with corresponding yields rising by about 2 to 4 basis points, and spot gold came under pressure, dropping by 1.1%.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/11 21:18

Wall Street giants collectively raise rate hike forecasts, US Treasury futures continue to fall, gold drops over 1% to break 4000

No Need to Worry About the Cooling Down of AI Data Center Construction? The US Import Boom Is Unlikely to Subside in the Short Term, Real Impact May Come in 2029

It takes an average of 4.8 years from finalizing investment to starting construction of a data center project, and an additional 2.6 years from construction start to becoming operational. Servers usually cannot be installed until after the building structure and racks are completed. For trade partners such as Taiwan (China), South Korea, and Mexico who rely on US data center supply chain demand, the inertia in construction timelines provides at least a one- to two-year buffer for future exports.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/11 21:18

No Need to Worry About the Cooling Down of AI Data Center Construction? The US Import Boom Is Unlikely to Subside in the Short Term, Real Impact May Come in 2029

Federal Reserve Major Debate: When Should the Tenure of “Number Three” Williams End?

The main point of contention is whether Williams should step down in June 2028, upon completing a full 10-year term, or in June 2027, when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 65. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve Board holds ultimate discretion; if he leaves early, Fed Chair Waller would be able to assert greater control over the appointment to this critical position. However, forcing Williams to shorten his term could easily be interpreted as political manipulation. Williams himself is expected to serve until June 2028.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/11 21:18