Popular cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen made striking statements in his latest analysis evaluating Bitcoin’s current market cycle.
Cowen stated that no one can predict short-term price movements with certainty, but noted that 4-year cycles and historical seasonality data are still the strongest guides for understanding the market.
Cowen stated that Bitcoin traditionally performs weakly in the first half of US midterm election years, and presented data showing that BTC lost value against gold, the S&P 500, and even giant technology stocks like Microsoft during this period.
The analyst, who said those who underestimated the historical cycle were wrong, stated, “An investor who completely ignored Bitcoin in the first half of the year and bought it on July 1st outperformed anyone who tried to undercut the market.”
Cowen noted that July has historically been a green (rising) month for Bitcoin, pointing out that this was also the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
However, he warned investors against false rallies, stating that the real declines and the search for a bottom could deepen in August and September.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin price needs to fall a bit further for all on-chain indicators to completely reset and the market to clear. The analyst predicts that the real bottom could come around the end of September or the beginning of October.
Benjamin Cowen, who also harshly criticized the altcoin market, stated that 99.9% of the projects in the market actually have no intrinsic value and that time has revealed this fact. He noted that investors are in a weary phase where they no longer care about the market, and that social interest has been steadily declining since 2021.
