After a 2.32% increase over the previous day, Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at $64,380.20 at press time.
The leading cryptocurrency, however, failed to overcome the resistance level at $80k, which it last reached in mid-May, despite the increase.
Even though the four-hour chart’s RSI and MACD indicators, as well as the narrowing Bollinger bands, further imply that the bullish narrative is here to stay.
On-chain metrics raise red flags
Nonetheless, the data from CryptoQuant’s most recent analysis paints a bleak picture, indicating that Bitcoin is not in a bear market or a confirmed recovery, but rather is in a transitional phase.
On the one hand, conventional U.S. investors are being cautious.
This is because since October 2025, about $10 billion has been pulled out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, the Coinbase Premium has been negative for 65 days in a row, suggesting that buying demand from American institutions and individual investors is not strong.
However, on-chain data reveals that new Bitcoin whales are progressively gaining more BTC, as the supply of the cryptocurrency shifts from older, long-term holders to more large, recent investors.
This indicates that although ETF selling pressure indicates a weak market sentiment, big buyers are covertly consuming that supply, which may be preventing further declines.
Community backs Bitcoin
In fact, disregarding these negative metrics, former NASA researcher Benjamin Cowen pointed out,
Indeed, according to another analyst, there might be a recurrent four-year cycle in Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency market.
According to the analyst, an anonymous 4chan user correctly forecasted the peak of the Bitcoin market in October 2025, and this prediction is consistent with another independent cycle model.
He added,
If the cycle repeats, Q4 2026 could mark the next major buying opportunity and 2027 is gets crazy.
Similar to other opinions about Bitcoin, Adam Livingston contends that BTC seems to be undervalued because it is currently only 19.2% above its realized price, which is the average on-chain purchase price of all BTC, as opposed to an average premium of 81.9% in the past.
According to Livingston’s analysis of previous times when Bitcoin traded at comparable valuation levels, all completed historical regimes produced positive two-year returns, with median returns of 41% after six months, 127% after a year, and 621% after two years.
Nonetheless, AMBCrypto recently pointed out that better sentiment may have trouble spurring the kind of broad purchasing that is required for a long-lasting recovery until new capital returns to spot markets.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin price action is showing bullish momentum, but on-chain metrics are raising eyebrows.
- The community is also optimistic about Bitcoin’s upcoming trajectory.
