Everbright Futures 0710 Hotspot Tracking: Iran's Retaliation is Relatively Restrained, Silver Price Short-Term Correction and Rebound
After the escalation of US-Iran tensions this week, silver prices suffered a setback. From last night until the time of publication, US officials stated that the United States remains committed to seeking a solution on the Iran issue, and related technical negotiations are still ongoing. Conversely, Iran has also responded relatively cautiously, carrying out retaliatory strikes on US military bases, but has not further attacked merchant ships in the Strait, preventing further escalation in the Middle East. As risk sentiment recovers, precious metals have rebounded today. Among them, silver prices saw the most significant increase, with the main contract posting an intraday gain of over 4%.
On the Fed side, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will attend a Senate Banking Committee hearing on July 15. This hearing will center on the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy report submitted to Congress, and attention will focus on whether his remarks take a hawkish tone. In addition, the US June CPI data is set to be released next Tuesday. According to CCTV News, a monthly survey released by the New York Federal Reserve on the 7th showed that, compared to the previous month, the median expectation of US consumers for inflation one year ahead increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%, the highest level since September 2023. The median expectation for inflation three years ahead also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. However, as the Fed’s "No. 3" figure, New York Fed President Williams stated in a television interview that the recent decline in energy prices has helped ease inflationary pressure, thus to some extent alleviating the suppressive effect of rate hike expectations on the markets. Nevertheless, the range-bound movement of precious metals at the bottom remains unstable—amid intertwining geopolitical factors and shifting Fed policies, significant differences between bulls and bears persist, so caution is still warranted.
Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Author: Shi Yueming
Professional Qualification: F03097365
Trading Consultation Qualification: Z0017563
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Wall Street giants collectively raise rate hike forecasts, US Treasury futures continue to fall, gold drops over 1% to break 4000
After the US October CPI exceeded expectations, Goldman Sachs and Nomura added a forecast for an interest rate hike in March next year, while Deutsche Bank included a forecast for a rate hike in January next year. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with a 13% probability for a 50 basis point hike. On Wednesday, the US Treasury spot market was closed, but Treasury futures continued to fall, with corresponding yields rising by about 2 to 4 basis points, and spot gold came under pressure, dropping by 1.1%.
No Need to Worry About the Cooling Down of AI Data Center Construction? The US Import Boom Is Unlikely to Subside in the Short Term, Real Impact May Come in 2029
It takes an average of 4.8 years from finalizing investment to starting construction of a data center project, and an additional 2.6 years from construction start to becoming operational. Servers usually cannot be installed until after the building structure and racks are completed. For trade partners such as Taiwan (China), South Korea, and Mexico who rely on US data center supply chain demand, the inertia in construction timelines provides at least a one- to two-year buffer for future exports.
Federal Reserve Major Debate: When Should the Tenure of “Number Three” Williams End?
The main point of contention is whether Williams should step down in June 2028, upon completing a full 10-year term, or in June 2027, when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 65. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve Board holds ultimate discretion; if he leaves early, Fed Chair Waller would be able to assert greater control over the appointment to this critical position. However, forcing Williams to shorten his term could easily be interpreted as political manipulation. Williams himself is expected to serve until June 2028.
Crypto prices
More
