Indian Rupee: Inflation uptick with monsoon support – DBS
DBS economist Radhika Rao expects India’s June CPI inflation to edge up to 4.1% YoY from 3.9%, driven by food normalisation and fuel-cost pass-through. She sees limited upside risks to core inflation, an improving but uneven southwest monsoon, and the June trade deficit remaining elevated near USD 28.5 billion despite the recent oil-price correction.
Mild CPI rise and trade deficit
"June CPI inflation is expected to rise marginally to 4.1% yoy from 3.9% the month before, on continued normalisation in food segments and passthrough of fuel costs through the related segments."
"Beyond food and fuel, upside risks to core inflation appear limited, amid softer as well as precious metal prices and little scope for further price adjustments."
"Markets are also focused on the spatial and geographical spread of ongoing southwest monsoon."
"Encouragingly, the nationwide rainfall shortfall has narrowed considerably into July to -15% (as of 8 July), from over 40% gap in end-June, with key crop-producing belts of central and northwest India witnessing improvements."
"June trade data are unlikely to fully capture the impact of the mid-month correction in oil prices, with the trade deficit expected to remain elevated at around $28.5bn."
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Wall Street giants collectively raise rate hike forecasts, US Treasury futures continue to fall, gold drops over 1% to break 4000
After the US October CPI exceeded expectations, Goldman Sachs and Nomura added a forecast for an interest rate hike in March next year, while Deutsche Bank included a forecast for a rate hike in January next year. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with a 13% probability for a 50 basis point hike. On Wednesday, the US Treasury spot market was closed, but Treasury futures continued to fall, with corresponding yields rising by about 2 to 4 basis points, and spot gold came under pressure, dropping by 1.1%.
No Need to Worry About the Cooling Down of AI Data Center Construction? The US Import Boom Is Unlikely to Subside in the Short Term, Real Impact May Come in 2029
It takes an average of 4.8 years from finalizing investment to starting construction of a data center project, and an additional 2.6 years from construction start to becoming operational. Servers usually cannot be installed until after the building structure and racks are completed. For trade partners such as Taiwan (China), South Korea, and Mexico who rely on US data center supply chain demand, the inertia in construction timelines provides at least a one- to two-year buffer for future exports.
Federal Reserve Major Debate: When Should the Tenure of “Number Three” Williams End?
The main point of contention is whether Williams should step down in June 2028, upon completing a full 10-year term, or in June 2027, when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 65. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve Board holds ultimate discretion; if he leaves early, Fed Chair Waller would be able to assert greater control over the appointment to this critical position. However, forcing Williams to shorten his term could easily be interpreted as political manipulation. Williams himself is expected to serve until June 2028.
Sunshine Silver weighs doubling mill capacity
Crypto prices
More
