CryptoQuant says bitcoin rebound remains a bear-market recovery, not a trend reversal
Bitcoin's recent rebound should be viewed as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal, despite improving demand and historically strong July seasonality, according to CryptoQuant.
The onchain analytics firm said bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded about 10% from last week's low of around $57,700 to trade near $63,000, reclaiming the $60,000 level as a key support area. The recovery has been supported by July seasonality, with bitcoin historically tending to rally during the month, particularly in bear-market years such as 2018 and 2022, CryptoQuant said.
"Over the past ten years, July has been one of Bitcoin's more reliably positive months, closing higher in most years shown. The effect is pronounced in down-cycles: in the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly +20% and +17% in July even as the broader trend stayed weak," said CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno. "With Bitcoin entering July 2026 fresh off a bear-market low, this seasonal pattern skews the near-term risk toward further upside."
Bitcoin rebound
The rebound has also coincided with improving demand. The 30-day total bitcoin demand, which combines spot and perpetual futures activity, has recovered from its sharpest contraction since 2022 and is now close to neutral after falling by about 650,000 BTC in early June, CryptoQuant said. Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, while spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May, the firm added.
"A move back into positive territory would confirm that the demand engine is re-igniting," Moreno noted.
CryptoQuant also said U.S. investor demand has improved. The Coinbase Premium Index, a proxy for U.S. spot demand, recovered from "deeply negative" levels in early June to -0.062 as bitcoin rebounded from its lows, suggesting selling pressure on U.S. exchanges has eased and institutional demand is stabilizing.
CryptoQuant further said bitcoin's recent undervaluation points to further room for recovery. Traders' unrealized profit margin fell below -24% in early June, well below CryptoQuant's -12% undervaluation threshold. Historically, such extreme readings have often coincided with local market bottoms as short-term holders capitulate, the firm said, noting that the metric has since started recovering alongside bitcoin's rebound from around $57,700.
Despite those improving signals, CryptoQuant said broader market conditions remain weak. The firm's Bull Score Index, which combines onchain, market and valuation indicators, currently stands at 20, well within bearish territory and far below the 60 level the firm says is needed to support a sustainable rally and a true bull market. Until then, the recent rebound is best viewed as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal, CryptoQuant concluded.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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