Commodities Veteran: Now is the Best Time to Buy the Dip in Gold, Long-term Target $10,000; Silver is Bullish to $150-$200

Gold prices have retraced more than 25% from their highs, but according to seasoned commodity investors, this correction presents a rare window for strategic positioning.

Recently, at the Rick Rule Symposium, Wealthion economist and experienced fund manager Trey Reik stated that the recent selling pressure on gold mainly stems from market concerns around Federal Reserve rate hikes. However, he believes there is a fundamental flaw in this rationale—the scale of U.S. debt leaves the Fed with virtually no real room for monetary tightening. He predicts that the $4,000 range will serve as the bottom for this correction, with a long-term price target for gold at $10,000, while silver could potentially rise to $150–200.

The sentiment at the event also confirmed the market’s renewed enthusiasm. This year’s Rick Rule Symposium attracted around 800 participants, a roughly 60% increase from last year’s 500. Trey Reik believes that this change is a strong signal, indicating that more and more investors are designating precious metals and resource assets as core allocations for the next three to five years.

Trey Reik attributes the recent gold decline to an "ABC inference": rising oil prices → warming inflation → Fed tightening, a chain reaction. But he clearly disagrees with the end point of this logic.

“U.S. federal debt interest payments have now reached $1.2 trillion and are expected to rise to $2.1 trillion annually over the next decade,” he said, “With such a debt structure, the Fed’s room for sharp rate hikes is extremely limited.” He also pointed out that the new Federal Reserve leadership’s policy leanings focus more on medium- and long-term economic impacts, rather than overreacting to short-term inflation expectations.

From a market sentiment perspective, oversold signals are quite evident. Trey Reik cited Jake Bernstein’s DSI sentiment indicator, which plunged to an extremely low 10% a week and a half ago—over his more than 20 years tracking the indicator, he has only seen such readings twice. The indicator has since rebounded quickly to 42%. “$4,000 is a very reasonable low point for this cycle,” he stated.

At the event, Majestic Silver Mining CEO Keith revealed during his luncheon speech that when silver prices were high previously, banks once refused to back traders, nearly pushing the market to systemic collapse. He said the company’s silver cost estimate is extremely conservative, about $38 per ounce, and profits at current prices are still considerable.

Another company mentioned, Seabidge Gold, would see its net present value climb from $4.9 billion to about $10 billion if recalculated at the current gold price of roughly $4,000.

Financial commentator Nomi Prince further noted at the event that physical demand-driven commodities such as copper, with fewer futures market participants, show much less price volatility compared to gold and silver—highlighting that precious metals prices are largely distorted by "paper trading" sentiment rather than fully reflecting fundamentals.

Rick Rule, in his keynote speech at this year’s conference, specifically emphasized the theme of mining sector mergers and acquisitions, introducing the logic chain of “the best companies acquire less optimal ones”: large miners need to replenish reserves and will acquire medium-sized producers, mediums will reach for emerging producers, and companies at the bottom of the food chain—exploration and drilling firms—will become the primary focus of M&A activity.

Trey Reik, paraphrasing Rick Rule’s view, said that in the next year or two, a large number of deals will occur in this sector, with some companies’ valuations likely seeing astonishing growth.

Trey Reik repeatedly emphasized that precious metals and mining investments are not suited for short-term trading mindsets. Citing Rick Rule’s track record, he noted that every tenfold gain Rule ever made in his career had an average holding period of five years, with at least one 50% drawdown along the way.

“If your investment horizon is less than three to five years, this market may not be for you,” he said. “You need to be mentally prepared to withstand significant drawdowns—that’s part of the game.”

He suggests that investors with a clear view of long-term dollar weakness and U.S. debt risks can use this summer’s correction to carefully research individual stocks and gradually build positions. “Rick says, a year from now you’ll be happy, and in five years you’ll be ecstatic.”