While Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general continue to trade with high volatility, a signal that accurately indicated the bottoms has been analyzed.
According to a CryptoQuant analyst report, Bitcoin is likely to experience further declines in the current bear market.
At this point, the analyst, examining the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, noted that Bitcoin’s NUPL indicator is currently at 0.158.
The 30-day NUPL moving average has fallen to 0.155, while the 100-day EMA is at 0.215. With the 30-day average below the 100-day average, a bottom would require the 100-day EMA to also fall below zero.
Because the 100-day NUPL EMA, historically considered a stronger bottom signal, has not yet fallen below zero.
“…Every time NUPL’s 100-day EMA fell below zero, Bitcoin formed a cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear market ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022).”
Each drop in NUPL has been shallower than the last: -0.58 in 2011, -0.22 in 2015, and approximately -0.15 in both 2019 and 2022. This seems consistent with the maturation of BTC.”
In this context, the analyst noted that the past four cycles formed a pattern, but did not constitute a certainty.
Finally, the analyst notes that the NUPL indicator has not yet reached its lowest levels from past bear markets, suggesting that Bitcoin price may experience further corrections.
However, he added, “Since this cycle tends to gradually reduce the severity of the decline compared to previous cycles, there is also the possibility of forming a bottom without falling to past levels.”
