US Dollar: Services data guide Fed expectations – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that softer U.S. labor data and easing inflation have reduced pressure for further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, but upcoming US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and ISM Services will be crucial for rate expectations. Yu notes that weaker prints could extend front-end yield relief, while firmer data would argue for caution.

Services data to test Fed path

"Markets have moved from relief to validation. Softer U.S. labor data and better inflation prints have reduced the urgency around further tightening, but they haven’t settled whether growth is slowing in a manageable way or whether policy expectations have moved too far."

"Last week’s weak NFP print was an indication that U.S. labor demand may be cooling more quickly after a string of recent strong payrolls, suggesting that market expectations for the Fed to hike may have been overdone. This week is lighter from a data perspective, but Monday’s S&P Global PMI and ISM Services will be the key reads, alongside a handful of Fed appearances that should keep markets attentive to the policy reaction function."

"The most important releases this week are the U.S. Services PMIs and ISM Services, as they will help determine whether last week’s payroll weakness is starting to show up in broader activity data or remains an isolated labor-market signal. A softer set of prints would strengthen the case that the Fed isn’t inclined to hike immediately and could extend the recent easing in front-end yields, while firmer readings would argue for more caution in extrapolating from one soft NFP report."

"Across emerging markets, the flow picture still looks more like rotation than retreat. Higher U.S. yields are forcing investors to reassess crowded bond exposure, but the adjustment is not yet a broad exit from risk."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)