From 6000 slashed to 4500! JPMorgan predicts limited room for gold price rebound in the second half of the year
JP Morgan has turned conservative on the short-term outlook for gold, lowering its Q4 2026 gold price forecast by 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from a previous target of around $6,000 per ounce. The bank also expects the average gold price in Q3 this year to be $4,300 per ounce.
This adjustment is mainly due to weaker demand from gold's major purchasing sectors, combined with the increased sensitivity of gold prices to real interest rate fluctuations, which has suppressed the short-term upside. The institution anticipates that gold prices will remain range-bound in the second half of the year, with a recovery trend expected only after the macro environment improves.
On Monday, international spot gold hovered near a two-week high, currently trading at around $4,150 per ounce. Compared to the record high of $5,600 in January 2026, the price has retraced by 26%. Despite cutting its short-term outlook, JP Morgan has not changed its bullish long-term stance, believing that the current consolidation is merely a phase in a multi-year bull market and does not suggest a structural bearish reversal in the long-term uptrend.
In contrast to JP Morgan's conservative stance, other top investment banks remain optimistic about gold towards the end of the year. Goldman Sachs believes that sovereign purchases and emerging market central banks diversifying their foreign reserves will support gold prices, predicting a gold price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
UBS is betting on a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy and pressure on the US dollar, offering a 12-month gold price target of $5,200. Morgan Stanley is also optimistic that gold prices will surpass $5,200 in the second half of the year, but stresses that this is contingent on continued large inflows into gold ETFs.
In summary, JP Morgan is currently the most cautious among mainstream investment banks regarding gold's short-term prospects. The institution has also identified two core factors supporting the sustained strength of gold prices in the long term, potentially driving further appreciation through 2027.
First, global central banks continue to accelerate the pace of increasing gold reserves, while physical gold consumption demand is recovering, providing strong support for gold prices. Second, institutional investors persist in allocating to gold to hedge various macro risks, and there has been no reversal in this funding trend. Gold’s dual role as a safe-haven asset and alternative reserve currency underscores its unshakable long-term allocation value.
JP Morgan further analyzes that if gold prices remain sideways without a clear trend in the second half of the year, some institutional hedge funds may temporarily shift to the cryptocurrency market. However, the firm emphasizes that gold's unique store-of-value properties are irreplaceable, and any diversion of funds would be a temporary phenomenon, not undermining gold’s core position in asset allocation.
In addition, JP Morgan forecasts that as the market overcomes last year’s physical supply tensions and the gold-silver ratio normalizes, silver prices will average between $60 and $65 per ounce during its forecast period.
The firm also expects that by the end of 2026, platinum prices will average about $1,800 per ounce, rising to about $1,950 by the end of 2027, supported by fundamentals on the South African supply side. By the end of 2026, palladium prices are expected to reach $1,350 per ounce, with the 2027 average around $1,300 per ounce, consistent with the overall weakening trend across precious metals.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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