Goldman Sachs sharply lowers yen forecast, may fall to 165 within a year

Golden Ten Data reported on July 6 that Goldman Sachs expects the Japanese yen will fall to 165 per US dollar within a year, down from its previous forecast of 155, making it one of the most bearish institutions on the yen. Strategist Fishman noted that downward pressure on the yen comes from Japan's fiscal challenges, persistently high US Treasury yields, and the Bank of Japan’s slow pace of rate hikes, even though the yen is already severely undervalued. Positioning supports further weakness in the yen. Data shows that hedge funds’ short bets against the yen hit the highest level since 2017 last month, with the market estimating about a 72% chance that USD/JPY will rise to 165 by June next year. Goldman Sachs also favors using the yen as a funding currency for carry trades, i.e., borrowing yen to invest in high-yielding assets. The bank forecasts USD/JPY at 162 in three months and 163 in six months (previously 160 and 158, respectively), and believes official intervention will have only a short-lived effect, with the underlying reasons for yen weakness still remaining.