Continuous Increase! Is the Gold Price Starting to Surge?
Today, let's take a look at the gold trend ↓
From the beginning of 2024 until now, gold prices have soared by 150%. However, since hitting an all-time high in January this year, gold has since dropped nearly 30%. According to Wind data, the spot price of London gold fell by 7.20% in the first half of this year. On June 30, the intraday low touched $3,942.43/oz, the first time since November 2025.
Meanwhile, the posted prices for gold jewelry at major domestic chain stores have also been lowered, dropping from a peak of over 1,700 yuan/gram at the start of the year to around 1,200 yuan/gram now.
However, when many were waiting for gold prices to continue to fall for a potential bargain buy, something unexpected happened—
International gold prices rebounded last week, rising continuously to stabilize above $4,100/oz. At the time of publication, spot gold rose 1.24% to $4,174.77/oz; COMEX gold futures rose 1.54% to $4,189.19/oz.
Boosted by the recovery in international prices, the price of 24K gold jewelry from several domestic brands has been raised in tandem. On July 5, several brands quoted prices around 1,260 yuan/gram, about 30 yuan higher per gram than two days before.
On the news front, on July 1, the World Gold Council released its “Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market 2026.” The report projects that after wide fluctuations since the beginning of this year, gold investment will enter a critical phase in the second half of the year, with gold price performance influenced by various uncertainties such as geopolitics, interest rate environments, and investor sentiment.
The World Gold Council predicts gold prices may trade around $4,100/oz for the rest of the year, within a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. Should there be a deterioration in geopolitical or economic conditions, or a shift in interest rate expectations, gold could regain its rally momentum.
In addition, according to a survey released by the U.S. Department of Labor on July 2, the U.S. added 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, significantly below market expectations and the lowest in the past four months. The data also showed April's nonfarm payroll increase was revised down from 179,000 to 148,000, and May's from 172,000 to 129,000. After these revisions, April and May’s numbers were 74,000 lower than previously reported. Following the release of the data, market bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes shrank considerably, with expectations for rate hikes shifting from October to December.
Industry insiders believe that the current rebound in gold prices has been mainly driven by weaker U.S. economic data and loosening expectations of Fed rate hikes.
Regarding future price trends, Zhou Junhao, investment manager of the Asset Allocation Department at Guojin Asset Management, stated that this year, gold’s concurrent return with ongoing Middle East tensions has been negative. However, this doesn't mean its safe-haven properties have failed; rather, this round of geopolitical risk has uniquely suppressed gold prices through the "oil price–inflation–interest rates" channel—a special case in the transmission mechanism. Over the longer term, gold’s low correlation with traditional stocks and bonds and its ability to hedge against extreme risks remain unchanged.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan expects gold to maintain a range-bound performance in the short term before bouncing back, forecasting an average gold price of $4,300/oz for Q3 this year, and $4,500/oz for Q4.
OCBC Bank’s latest research report upgraded its short-term view on gold from “cautious” to “cautiously bullish.” The institution believes that if subsequent U.S. economic data continues to suppress real yields and the U.S. dollar continues weakening, the gold rally could persist. However, with the unemployment rate still stable, hawkish communication from Fed officials, and persistent inflation risks, gold may remain range-bound in the short term.
Zhongyuan Securities stated that with ongoing global inflation pressures, prolonged geopolitical risks, and heightened financial market volatility, the long-term value of gold asset allocation stands out, and the medium-to-long-term price center for international gold is likely to continue rising.
Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of Research and Development at China Chengxin (Oriental Jincheng), believes that inexperienced retail investors may face considerable volatility risk from blindly bottom-fishing or short-selling. Over the medium and long term, current prices have entered a high cost-effectiveness allocation range, highlighting gold’s configuration value. Following this round of deep correction, gold prices have returned to near the average global central bank purchase cost line, with the earlier valuation premium largely digested, significantly improving the long-term investment value.
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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