TRUMP trades at $1.78 on July 4, up 9.20% on the week, as the token’s most controversial headline yet lands alongside its most oversold weekly reading since launch.
The daily chart shows TRUMP inside a tight descending channel that has contained price since January, with a series of lower highs printed against every declining EMA. The 20-day sits at $1.77, essentially at spot, with the 50-day at $1.94, the 100-day at $2.35 and the 200-day at $3.45 all stacked overhead. The Supertrend (10,3) at $2.05 is the first meaningful resistance above the current bounce.
The weekly chart puts the full picture in context. TRUMP has fallen from around $49 at launch to current levels near $1.78, a drop of roughly 97%, inside a relentless descending trendline with no meaningful bounces that held. Weekly RSI sits at 30.78 with the signal line at 28.80, pressing against oversold territory for the first time in the token’s history. The weekly SAR at $1.53 now sits below price, a tentative flip that could mark the start of a momentum shift if this week’s candle holds.
- Support at $1.53 on the weekly SAR and $1.62 intraday low
- Resistance at $1.94 on the 50-day EMA, then $2.05 on the Supertrend.
Derivatives volume jumped 24.83% to $120.58M while open interest rose modestly 1.29% to $102.37M, a combination pointing to active repositioning rather than conviction buying. The long/short ratio sits at 0.9113, with shorts slightly outnumbering longs across accounts, leaving the market positioned somewhat skeptically heading into July.
Liquidations over 24 hours hit $209.40K, with longs taking the bulk at $37.38K against $172.02K for shorts, meaning bears who piled in expecting further downside got squeezed as price bounced from the weekly lows. Open interest has collapsed from peaks above $500M in late 2025 to just over $100M now, removing the vast majority of speculative leverage.
Trump’s mandatory 2025 financial disclosure, running 927 pages, revealed over $635 million in royalties from Celebration Coins, the entity believed to be behind the $TRUMP meme coin, and more than $515 million from World Liberty Financial token sales. Combined crypto-related earnings for the year exceeded $1.4 billion against a total disclosed income of at least $2.2 billion.
In a CNBC interview, Trump defended the dealings as legal, noting that the president and vice president are not subject to federal conflict-of-interest laws. He said his children face unavoidable scrutiny because presidential policy touches nearly every sector of the economy, adding “I tell my kids, stay away, but they also have a life.” The White House denied any conflicts of interest. The disclosures landed as $TRUMP itself sits 90% below the price at which those royalties were largely generated, raising pointed questions about who benefited and when.
| Period | Price Range | Outlook |
| July 1-5 | $1.62 – $2.00 | Weekly SAR flip attempt, disclosure headlines drive volume |
| July 6-12 | $1.55 – $2.10 | Test of Supertrend resistance at $2.05 if bounce extends |
| July 13-19 | $1.50 – $2.20 | Sentiment driven by political newsflow and broader meme coin sector |
| July 20-26 | $1.55 – $2.35 | 50-day EMA at $1.94 becomes the key battleground |
| July 27-31 | $1.60 – $2.50 | Trend resolution based on macro risk appetite and political headlines |
TRUMP Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets
- Upside case: Weekly RSI oversold reading marks a durable bottom, short squeeze extends, and TRUMP clears $2.05 on its way toward $2.35.
- Downside case: The disclosure-driven attention fades, the weekly SAR at $1.53 breaks, and TRUMP slides toward $1.00 with no prior support to lean on.
