Analyst: Active bitcoin investors are facing an average unrealized loss of about 20%, and the market is still under cyclical pressure.

BlockBeats news, on July 4, crypto analyst Darkfost posted on social media that currently, active Bitcoin (BTC) investors are on average facing about a 20% unrealized loss. This conclusion is based on the "True Market Mean (TTM)" indicator, which excludes Bitcoins that have not moved for a long time and may be lost or no longer participate in circulation, providing a more accurate reflection of the cost level of currently active circulating supply.

Data shows that the current TMM is around $76,700 and has recently served as an important resistance level in the market. Historically, during market adjustment phases, some investors tend to exit the market rather than continue holding in order to avoid larger losses, making this price zone a key area for short-term supply and demand competition.

At the same time, the "Active Value to Investor Value Ratio" is currently about 0.8, sitting in a valuation decline range and corresponding to roughly a 20% unrealized loss. Although this level is already under significant pressure, it has not yet reached the extreme ranges seen in historic bear markets of 0.5 to 0.6 (about 40%–50% loss). Although the market still shows cyclical patterns, the ongoing inflow of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's overall cyclical nature, so the subsequent trend still requires cautious observation.