Gold and Bitcoin are continuing to see investor exits as the ‘debasement trade’ unwinds following slow progress as far as U.S-Iran talks are concerned. In fact, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the macro hedges are close to ‘becoming roomies’ in terms of capital outflows.
After the gold rush: GLD and GDX hangover getting worse, rough year, and now short interest has spiked 80% and 50% respectively via S3 data. Fast on the way to becoming roomies with bitcoin in the proverbial doghouse.
GLD tracks long commodity investors (gold) while GDX tracks long equity positions. For gold, the 80% short interest also mirrored Bitcoin [BTC]’s weakness.
Bitcoin follows gold in capital outflows
The altcoin extended its decline in 2026 after failing to advance beyond $83K during the Q2 relief bounce. It printed a new yearly low of $57.7K this week before fronting a brief recovery to $62K following a weaker U.S jobs report.
However, for the first time since their debut in 2024, U.S Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $5.4B in H1 2026, according to DWF Labs.
The CME positioning also painted a similar picture, as shown by the weekly commitments of traders (COT). COT tracks large institutional positions on the CME. In 2026, the COTs metric has been negative, with brief positive values in late March and April.
In other words, institutional players were, on average, shorting BTC in H1 2026 as ETF flows also turned negative.
Although whales have accelerated BTC accumulation as institutional demand tanked, the bids were still relatively small to offset the pressure.
In fact, the weakness can be expected to persist in Q3 with a final potential BTC market cycle bottom in Q4 2026.
Is macro risk still on the table?
In the short term, however, the CME net positioning briefly turned positive. Similarly, U.S Spot ETFs saw net inflows of $221M on Thursday, breaking 10 consecutive days of net outflows. The shift followed the weaker U.S. Jobs report, which eased Fed rate hike fears.
According to QCP Capital analysts, this meant that “spot demand was beginning to firm,” but confirmation will depend on key inflation data scheduled for mid-July.
Broader confirmation of a front-end dovish repricing likely still needs the 14 Jul CPI and 15 Jul PPI prints ahead of the month-end FOMC, but the flip in flows suggests spot demand is beginning to firm.
That said, the short-term upside resistance levels were at $62.3K, the $65K-$67K zone, and $75K (200-day SMA) at press time.
Final Summary
- BTC and gold have seen record capital outflows and rising short interest in H1 2026.
- QCP Capital analysts noted that Spot BTC demand had begun to firm up, but confirmation was still needed.
