thecryptobasic.com 
$XRP entered July 2026 below its 50-month Simple Moving Average (SMA), a development that analyst EGRAG believes could shape the rest of this market cycle.
He said the $1.65 price level remains $XRP’s key macro resistance. A decisive breakout above it could mark the start of the asset’s next major expansion phase. Notably, $XRP is trading at $1.07, up 3.71% over the past day.
$XRP Starts July Below the 50-Month SMA
EGRAG noted that $XRP opened July trading below its 50-month SMA. Historically, this has often preceded one final correction before a major rally.
Based on previous market cycles, $XRP typically formed its final bottom around the 88-month SMA before beginning its strongest advances. If history repeats, the asset could revisit that level before its next macro breakout.
However, EGRAG said this cycle could unfold differently. If buyers quickly reclaim the 50-month SMA, $XRP may avoid a deeper pullback altogether.
EGRAG Outlines Three Possible Scenarios
To assess $XRP’s outlook, EGRAG assigned probabilities to three possible outcomes. The analyst sees a 55% chance that $XRP will retest or briefly wick below the 88-month SMA before beginning its next expansion.
He also assigns a 30% probability that $XRP quickly reclaims the 50-month SMA. In that scenario, the asset would skip a return to the 88-month SMA and break from its historical pattern.
The least likely outcome carries a 15% probability. In this case, $XRP’s price would lose support around the 88-month SMA and require more time to build a new bullish structure.
Despite these different possibilities, EGRAG said one resistance level remains the most important.
$1.65 Is the Key Level to Watch
EGRAG identified $1.65 as $XRP’s defining macro resistance.
According to his chart, $XRP remains in what he calls “macro compression” until that level is decisively broken. Trading below the 50-month SMA continues to warrant caution. A successful reclaim of the moving average, however, would signal renewed strength.
The chart also suggests that a confirmed breakout above $1.65 could open the door to much higher long-term price targets.
Breakout Could Trigger Move to $7.50 and Beyond
If $XRP breaks above $1.65, EGRAG believes it could begin a macro expansion similar to previous market cycles.
His first major upside target is $7.50, representing the initial expansion phase. Beyond that, the analyst continues to project a long-term measured-move target of $42 based on historical cycle analysis.
Although he acknowledged that history may not repeat exactly, EGRAG said his highest-probability scenario is still a final test of the 88-month SMA before $XRP begins its next major rally.
At the same time, he noted that a quick reclaim of the 50-month SMA would suggest this cycle is developing differently from previous ones. For now, EGRAG maintains that $1.65 is the decisive level to watch.
